The S&P 500 closed above the highest highs of the previous 13 trading days and already has retraced a normal 38.2% Fibonacci ratio of its steep May-July drop.
The Small Cap/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio rose to another new 15-month high.
Energy Stock Sector XLE absolute price and XLE/SPY Relative Strength Ratio both broke down to new 11-week lows.
Utilities Stock Sector XLU absolute price and XLU/SPY Relative Strength Ratio both broke down to new 7-week lows.
Crude Oil August futures contract fell below the lows of the previous 6 weeks, confirming a short-term correction phase. Gold August futures contract fell below the lows of the previous 7 days, confirming a short-term correction phase.
Technology XLK/SPY Relative Strength Ratio fell to its lowest levels in 12 weeks, again confirming a Bearish trend.
Most instruments took the day off the wild rollercoaster for a little consolidation.
On Monday, major stock price indexes opened higher but soon gave up early gains. Stocks closed narrowly mixed. The S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY) ended the session above the previous close, below the open, and near the midpoint of the High-Low range. The S&P 500 closed at 1,260.00, down 0.68 points or 0.05%. Total NYSE volume fell 18%, suggesting waning demand for stocks.
Growth Stock/Value Stock Relative Strength Ratio fell steeply to a new 4-week low, signaling a short-term downward correction. CRB index of commodity prices broke down to a new 6-week price low. Crude Oil futures contract drifted slightly lower to a new 6-week low. Gold fell below the lows of the previous 4 days, confirming a short-term correction phase.
Energy Stock Sector absolute price (XLE) and XLE/SPY Relative Strength Ratio both broke down to new 2-month lows, signaling an intermediate-term Secondary Correction Wave. CRB index of commodity prices broke down to a new 5-week price low. Crude Oil contract fell down 5.31 to 129.29, breaking down below the lows of the previous 6 weeks and signaling a short-term correction. Gold appears to have entered a short-term correction phase.
Changes in minor trends can be sudden and violent.
Short covering and bargain hunting lifted the stocks in the most Bearish trends.
Crude Oil and Gold fell, while the U.S. dollar rallied.
NASDAQ Composite Relative Strength Ratio broke out to a new 8-month high, while absolute price rebounded after testing and holding its low of 3/17/08.
iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF (LQD) absolute price broke down to another new 5-year low.
Crude Oil August futures contract, down 6.63 to 138.55, fell steeply but did not break uptrends in weekly and monthly time frames. Gold rose to another new 4-month high. The U.S. dollar fell further to its lowest closing price in 12-weeks. Financial Stock Sector XLF absolute price and the XLF/SPY Relative Strength Ratio both fell to their lowest level in 8 years.
Financial Stock Sector XLF/SPY Relative Strength Ratio fell to its lowest level in 8 years, and the XLF absolute price fell to its lowest level in more than 5 years. Gold rose to another new 4-month high. The U.S. dollar fell to its lowest closing price in 12-weeks.
The Cumulative Daily Advance-Decline Line for the NYSE fell to a new 20-month low. Defensive Stock Sectors, Utilities and Consumer Staples, Relative Strength Ratios both rose new 5-year highs. Financial Stock Sector XLF/SPY Relative Strength Ratio fell to its lowest level in 8 years, and the XLF absolute price fell to its lowest level in more than 5 years.
Materials Stock Sector XLB /SPY Relative Strength Ratio rose to another new 5-year high. Health Care Stock Sector XLV/SPY Relative Strength Ratio moved up to a new 5-month high. Consumer Discretionary Stock Sector absolute price and the XLY/SPY Relative Strength Ratio both fell to their lowest levels in more than 5 months.
Investment newsletter advisors are the most Bearish since 1994—but that is not Bullish. Utilities Stock Sector XLU/SPY Relative Strength Ratio rose to another new all-time high. Consumer Staples Stock Sector XLP /SPY Relative Strength Ratio rose to another new 5-year high. Health Care Stock Sector XLV/SPY Relative Strength Ratio moved up to a new 5-month high.
Materials Stock Sector absolute price and XLB/SPY Relative Strength Ratio both fell to new 9-week lows, thereby suggesting an intermediate-term downside correction. Foreign stock index EFA Relative Strength Ratio fell to its lowest level in 3 months. Health Care Stock Sector XLV/SPY Relative Strength Ratio moved up to a new 4- month high.
Consumer Staples Stock Sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLP/SPY) rose to a new 5-year high. The market has been moving to “defensive” businesses that are not overly sensitive to economic slumps. Growth Stock/Value Stock Relative Strength Ratio rose to a new 3-year high.
iShares Lehman TIPS Bond ETF (TIP) Strength Ratio Relative to iShares Lehman 7-10 Year Treasury ETF (IEF) broke out to a new 18-month high, indicating rising inflation expectations. TIP tracks the performance of the inflation-protected sector of the U.S. Treasury market. iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF (LQD) absolute price broke down to another new 5-year low, again confirming a major downtrend.
The S&P 500 and the Dow-Jones Industrial Average both fell to their lowest closing price levels in more than 22 months. The Dow-Jones Transportation Average, which had been relatively strong all year until 6/19/08, fell steeply to its lowest closing price level in more than 3 months, since 3/19/08. Industrial Stock Sector Relative Strength Ratio and absolute price both fell to their lowest levels in more than 5 months, again confirming a Bearish trend.
Well-established major trends are continuing. Energy Stock Sector Relative Strength Ratio rose to another new all-time high, again confirming a major uptrend. Utilities Stock Sector Relative Strength Ratio rose to another new all-time high, again confirming a major uptrend.
The defensive Utilities Stock Sector Relative Strength Ranking rose while the more cyclical Industrial Ranking moved down, suggesting that big money is anticipating economic weakness. Utilities Stock Sector Relative Strength Ratio rose to another new all-time high, again confirming a major uptrend. Energy Stock Sector Relative Strength Ratio rose to another new all-time high, again confirming a major uptrend.
TStock Sector Relative Strength major trends also continued. Energy Stock Sector Relative Strength Ratio rose to another new all-time high, again confirming a major uptrend. Financial Stock Sector absolute price fell to its lowest level in more than 5 years, while the XLF/SPY Relative Strength Ratio fell to its lowest level in 8 years.
TDJIA fell to its lowest level since 9/11/06. Not all indicators confirmed that new low. Financial Stock Sector absolute price fell to its lowest level in more than 5 years, while the XLF/SPY Relative Strength Ratio fell to its lowest level in 8 years. Industrial Stock Sector absolute price fell to its lowest level in 5 months. Foreign stock index EFA absolute price fell to its lowest level in 3 months.
The Fed gave the market what it expected, but it was not good enough. Defensive stocks have been outperforming cyclical stocks, implying a weak economic outlook. Utilities Stock Sector Relative Strength Ratio rose to another new all-time high, confirming a major uptrend. Consumer Staples Stock Sector Relative Strength Ratio rose to a new 12-week high, confirming an improving intermediate-term trend.
DJIA and NYSE A-D Line confirmed. Consumer confidence fell 13% to its lowest level in 16 years.
On Tuesday, major stock price indexes opened lower and fell further into the red to a 10:01 a.m. low on news from the Conference Board of plunging consumer confidence. Stocks reversed to the plus side for more than 3 hours but slid back down into the red in the final 2 hours.
Weak Stock Sector: Financial absolute price fell to its lowest level in more than 5 years, while the XLF/SPY Relative Strength Ratio fell to its lowest level in 8 years. Strong Stock Sectors: Energy, Materials, and Utilities Relative Strength Ratios rose to new all-time highs. Growth Stock/Value Stock Relative Strength Ratio rose to another new 3-year high.
The S&P 500 broke down to a new 2-month low, below 1,324.35, the low of 4/15/2008. Financial Stock Sector absolute price fell to its lowest level in more than 5 years, since 4/14/03. Health Care Stock Sector absolute price fell to its lowest level in nearly 2 years, since 7/18/06. Foreign stock index EFA absolute price fell to its lowest level in nearly 3 months, since 3/24/08.
Energy was the only one of the nine major stock sectors to decline. But still, the breadth of the market lagged, as indicated by more Declines than Advances on the NYSE. NASDAQ Composite Relative Strength Ratio rose to a new 8-month high. Growth Stock/Value Stock Relative Strength Ratio rose to another new 3-year high. The Small Cap/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio rose to a new 11-month high.
Growth Stock/Value Stock Relative Strength Ratio rose to another new 3-year high. The Small Cap/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio rose to a new 11-month high. Utilities Stock Sector Relative Strength Ratio rose to another new 5-month high. Energy Stock Sector Relative Strength Ratio rose to another new all-time high, again confirming a major uptrend.
The Small Cap/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio rose to a new 11-month high. Energy Stock Sector Relative Strength Ratio rose to another new all-time high, again confirming a major uptrend. Materials Stock Sector Relative Strength Ratio rose to another new all-time high, again confirming a major uptrend. The U.S. dollar broke below the lows of the previous 2 trading days, suggesting the possibility that last week’s 4-month new high might have been a false breakout.
Falling volume indicates waning demand for stocks. Industrial Stock Sector Relative Strength Ratio fell to its lowest level in 4 months. Growth Stock/Value Stock Relative Strength Ratio rose to another new 3-year high. Crude Oil made a new high intraday but it was rejected by the market...could be vulnerable for the short-term.
Growth Stock/Value Stock Relative Strength Ratio rose to another new 3-year high. Foreign stock index EFA Relative Strength Ratio broke down to another new 11-week low, again confirming a significant downside correction. Bond price again fell below previous 7-month lows, and trends in all time frames still appear vulnerable to further price decline.
SPY MACD and Histogram continued to decline further into negative territory.
Consumer Staples Stock Sector Relative Strength Ratio rose to another new 8-week high.
Health Care Stock Sector price tested its March 2008 low—seems unlikely to hold.
Foreign stock index EFA Relative Strength Ratio broke down to another new 11-week low, confirming a significant downside correction.
U.S. Treasury Bond September futures contract price broke down below previous7-month lows to confirm a major downtrend.
SPY RSI 14 is more “oversold” than at the low on 3/17/08—but oversold can get more oversold when momentum is this Bearish. Dow-Jones Industrial Average closed at a new 12-week low. Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed at a new 7-week low. NASDAQ Composite closed at a new 7-week low. S&P 500 Composite closed at a new 8-week low. Financial Stock Sector Relative Strength Ratio fell to another new 7- year low.
Utilities Stock Sector Relative Strength Ratio rose to another new 4-month high. Consumer Staples Stock Sector Relative Strength Ratio rose to a new 8-week high. Foreign stock index EFA Relative Strength Ratio broke down to a new 11-week low, indicating a significant downside correction. Gold plunged steeply to a new 4-week low.
Energy Stock Sector Relative Strength Ratio rose to another new all-time high. Materials Stock Sector Relative Strength Ratio rose to another new all-time high. Utilities Stock Sector Relative Strength Ratio rose to a new 4-month high. Financial Stock Sector Relative Strength Ratio again fell to its lowest level in more than 7 years, continuing a major Bearish trend.
Crude Oil jumped to a new all-time high at 137.71 a barrel. DJIA fell to a new 10-week low. S&P 500 fell to a new 7-week low. Financial Stock Sector Relative Strength Ratio again fell to its lowest level in more than 7 years, continuing a major Bearish trend. Industrial Stock Sector: both price and the XLI/SPY Relative Strength Ratio fell to their lowest levels in 7 weeks.
Energy and Materials Sectors sprung back the most. The Small Cap/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio rose to a new 9-month high. NASDAQ Composite rose to a new 5-month closing price high. Industrial Stock Sector Relative Strength Ratio lagged, falling to its lowest level in 5 weeks. Downgrade to Underweight.
Financial Stock Sector Relative Strength Ratio again fell to its lowest level in more than 7 years, continuing a major Bearish trend. DJIA fell to its lowest closing level in 7 weeks. The S&P 500 closed below both its 50- and 200-day simple moving averages for the second consecutive session. MACD Histogram is negative and falling, meaning that stock market momentum is Bearish and growing more Bearish. Growth Stock/Value Stock Relative Strength Ratio rose to another new 3-year high.
MACD Histogram is negative and falling, meaning that stock market momentum is Bearish and growing more Bearish. Growth Stock/Value Stock Relative Strength Ratio rose to another new 3-year high. Crude Oil July futures contract broke down below previous 11-day lows, thereby confirming a downward correction.
MACD Histogram is negative and falling, meaning that stock market momentum is Bearish and growing more Bearish. Financial Stock Sector Relative Strength Ratio fell to its lowest level in more than 7 years. Growth Stock/Value Stock Relative Strength Ratio rose to another new 3-year high
Crude Oil July futures reversed to the downside, CRB Commodities Price Index broke down to a new 3-week low, and Gold June futures broke down below the lows of the previous 8 trading days. Technology Stock Sector Relative Strength Ratio rose to another new 4-month high. U.S. Treasury Bond prices broke sharply lower to another new 7-month low. U.S. dollar broke out above the highs of the previous 7 trading days.
Crude Oil July futures reversed to the downside, CRB Commodities Price Index broke down to a new 3-week low, and Gold June futures broke down below the lows of the previous 8 trading days. Technology Stock Sector Relative Strength Ratio rose to another new 4-month high. U.S. Treasury Bond prices broke sharply lower to another new 7-month low. U.S. dollar broke out above the highs of the previous 7 trading days.
U.S. Treasury Bond prices broke down to a new 7-month low. Financial Stock Sector Relative Strength Ratio fell to its lowest level in more than 7 years. Technology Stock Sector Relative Strength Ratio rose to another new 4-month high. Growth Stock/Value Stock Relative Strength Ratio rose to another new 3-year high. Commodities, oil, gold: consolidation or correction would come as no surprise given overbought conditions.
The SPY traded within the previous day’s range, with a lower high and a higher low, for an “Inside Day”. This and declining volume on rallies imply that last week’s downtrend probably will continue. Growth Stock/Value Stock Relative Strength Ratio rose to another new 3-year high. Technology Stock Sector Relative Strength Ratio rose to another new 4-month high, confirming an improving intermediate-term trend.
Last week’s price action confirmed a Bearish trend change for the stock market for the short term. Foreign stock indexes Relative Strength Ratios rose to new 5-month highs. Growth Stock/Value Stock Relative Strength Ratio rose to a new 3-year high. U.S. Treasury Bond prices bounced upward after holding above the lower end of a 2-week trading range.
Foreign stock indexes Relative Strength Ratios rose sharply to new 5-month highs. Utilities Relative Strength Ratios rose to new 4-month highs. Crude Oil, Gold, and the CRB commodity price index corrected to the downside in what appeared to be normal profit taking. For major stock price indexes, damage has been done to trend and momentum indicators, and so the weight of the evidence appears to be turning more Bearish.
Crude Oil and the CRB commodity price index both soared to new all-time highs. For major stock price indexes, damage has been done to trend and momentum indicators. The weight of the evidence appears to be turning more Bearish for the stock market in general.
Most stocks fell on reports that the credit crisis might extend well into 2009 or even longer. The popular DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE broke below an uptrend line rising from its 3/17/08 low. The weight of the evidence appears to be turning more Bearish for the stock market in general. But the most important action remains in the sectors and groups.
The weight of the evidence appears mixed for the stock market in general. The important action is in the sectors and groups. Financial Stock Sector Relative Strength Ratio fell to its lowest level in more than 7 years, again confirming a major downtrend. Financial has been at the bottom of my rankings for many months. Energy Stock Sector rose to new all-time highs for both price and relative strength, again confirming major uptrends.
The weight of the evidence appears mixed for the stock market in general. Energy and Materials Stock Sectors rose to new all-time highs, again confirming major uptrends. These two have led in my rankings for many months. Crude Oil June futures rose to a new all-time high, confirming uptrends in all time frames. Gold June futures turned Bullish by breaking out to a new 3-week high and breaking a downtrend line from the 3/17/08 top.
Relatively low volume fails to confirm a new Bull Market. The weight of the evidence appears mixed. On Thursday, major stock price indexes opened higher, continued to rise most of the day, and closed very near the highest levels of the day. Total NYSE volume fell 3%, however, suggesting waning demand for stocks.
Investment Advisors are Bullish and are growing more Bullish. VIX indicates that fear has decreased substantially. Stock Price Oscillators have been losing Bullish Momentum.
Put/Call Ratios indicate neutral sentiment. VIX indicates that fear has been decreasing significantly. Stock Price Oscillators have lost Momentum. Crude Oil June futures jumped to another new all-time high of 126.98. Energy stocks were strong, while Financials were weak--again. H
