July crude oil closed down $4.32 at $126.71 a barrel yesterday. Prices closed near the session low yesterday. No chart damage occurred yesterday, but strong follow-through selling pressure on Friday and a bearish weekly low close would begin to produce some near-term chart damage. Remember that two very strong down days in a row in crude oil would be a very early clue of at least a near-term market top being in place. yesterday's weekly DOE storage report was surprisingly bullish, but traders ignored that report. When a market cannot rally on fully bullish fundamental news, then that's one clue that all the bullish news has been factored into the market. Importantly, yesterday the CFTC announced it is investigating the U.S. crude oil futures market. See more about this key topic in my bi- weekly newsletter, out later yesterday. While the crude bulls still have the strong overall near-term technical advantage, the market still feels "toppy" to me. The next upside price objective for the crude oil bulls is to produce a close solid technical resistance at the contract high of $135.09. The next downside price objective for the bears is producing a close below solid technical support at this week's low of $125.96 a barrel. First resistance is seen at $127.00 and then at $128.00. First support is seen at $125.96 and then at $125.00.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5
JULY HEATING OIL
July heating oil closed down 1,365 points at $3.7105 yesterday. Prices closed nearer the session low yesterday. Bulls still have the overall technical advantage, but did fade yesterday. The bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above technical resistance at the contract high of $4.0338. Bears' next downside price objective is producing a close below solid technical support at $3.5000. First resistance lies at $3.7500 and then at $3.8000. First support is seen at yesterday's low of $3.6744 and then at $3.6000.
July (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed down 496 points at $3.3345 yesterday. Prices closed near the session low yesterday after hitting a fresh contract high early on. The bulls still have the overall technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid resistance at yesterday's contract high of $3.4585. Bears' next downside price objective is closing prices below solid support at $3.2500. First resistance is seen at $3.4000 and then at $3.4300. First support is seen at $3.3000 and then at this week's low of $3.2800.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0
JULY NATURAL GAS
July natural gas closed down 49.5 cents at $11.50 yesterday. Prices closed near the session low yesterday on profit-taking pressure and amid sharp losses in crude oil. Nat gas bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage, but do not want to see strong follow-through selling pressure and a bearish weekly low close on Friday. The next upside price objective for the bulls is closing prices above resistance at the contract high of $12.209. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $11.00. First resistance is seen at $11.75 and then at $12.00. First support is seen at yesterday's low of $11.466 and then at $11.25.
Jim Wyckoff became a financial journalist with
Futures World News for many years, cutting his teeth
as a reporter on the futures trading floors in
Chicago and New York, where he covered every futures
market traded in the United States at one time or
another including commodity futures trading in Softs and Metals. Click here for full
bio >>
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